CNN political analyst David Chalian has highlighted that Kamala Harris may be facing significant challenges with independent voters in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina.

In recent polling, former President Donald Trump has secured a 7-point lead among independents in Georgia—a notable shift from 2020, when Joe Biden held a 9-point advantage among these voters. This potential shift among a critical voter bloc could impact Harris’s performance in the state.

Breaking down the numbers, Chalian emphasized the contrast between current polling and previous election results. He noted, “Among independent voters in our poll, Trump has a 7-point advantage in Georgia. In Georgia in 2020, Biden won independent voters by 9 points. So that’s a potential warning sign there for Harris.”

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Harris’s support among Black voters in Georgia remains similar to Biden’s 2020 numbers, with a 71-point lead, while Biden held a 77-point lead among Black voters in exit polls.

In North Carolina, the race among independents looks different. Harris holds a narrow 4-point lead over Trump among independents in the state, closely mirroring Biden’s lead among this group in 2020.

Despite this lead, Biden ultimately lost North Carolina by 2 points in the previous election. Chalian observed, “In North Carolina, let’s look at these same groups here. Among independent voters, Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump in our poll. That’s where Biden was with independent voters in the exit polls in 2020. Remember, he lost North Carolina in 2020 by a narrow margin.”

The analysis also highlights shifting dynamics among other demographic groups.

Harris’s current lead among Black voters in North Carolina stands at 59 points, marking a significant decrease from Biden’s 85-point lead in 2020.

Additionally, Trump’s advantage among non-college-educated white voters in North Carolina has declined from 59 points in 2020 to 34 points.

Chalian pointed out this potential shift, remarking, “This is a huge potential warning sign. In the exit polls, Biden won the Black vote in North Carolina by 85 percentage points. Harris, this is something she’s gonna want to watch for in the closing days.”

Nationally, Trump has made notable gains among Black and Latino voters, particularly young men within these demographics.

This trend suggests a broader shift away from the Democratic Party in key demographics that have historically leaned left.

Polling averages from RealClearPolitics show a tight race in both states. In North Carolina, Trump holds a narrow 1-point lead over Harris, polling at 48% to her 47%.

Trump’s advantage in Georgia, a state he narrowly lost in 2020, has expanded to nearly 3 points against Harris in current polling.

As election day approaches, Chalian noted that a large portion of voters in North Carolina and Georgia—95%—have made up their minds about their candidate of choice.

Early voting trends show Harris leading among those who have already cast ballots, with a 51% to 44% lead in Georgia and a 51% to 45% lead in North Carolina.

In the 2020 election, Biden narrowly won Georgia with 49.5% of the vote to Trump’s 49.3%. Meanwhile, Trump carried North Carolina with 50.1% to Biden’s 48.7%.

This year’s polling suggests that both states are still highly competitive, with slight shifts among key voter groups that could determine the outcome in these critical battlegrounds.

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