The Fox News Decision Desk has projected that Republicans will reclaim the Senate majority in the upcoming 119th Congress following the results of the 2024 elections.

The GOP secured enough seats to shift the Senate’s control back from the Democrats, who have held the majority under Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., since 2021.

Decision Desk HQ Screenshot

This election cycle presented Republicans with a favorable Senate map, as several seats held by Democrats were considered vulnerable, especially in states that lean Republican or are battlegrounds in presidential elections.

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Republicans faced relatively few competitive seats, with GOP incumbents in safe states and a high likelihood of winning in West Virginia.

In West Virginia, the GOP was all but guaranteed a win to replace outgoing Senator Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., whose seat was widely anticipated to flip red.

With the West Virginia victory and retention of all Republican incumbents, the GOP reached a minimum of 50 seats.

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The Democrats, meanwhile, faced a challenging map and narrow margin of control.

With only a 51-member majority over the Republicans’ 49, the party had minimal room for losses in states where they were vulnerable.

Key Democratic seats, such as those of Senator Jon Tester in Montana and Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, were up for re-election in states that have leaned Republican in recent years.

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Additionally, Senators Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Jacky Rosen in Nevada, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania faced re-election in battleground states pivotal to the presidential race.

Adding to Democratic challenges was the competitive race for the Arizona Senate seat, formerly held by Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and the Michigan seat vacated by retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., both of which were at risk of flipping.

The increasingly polarized environment and a decline in split-ticket voting further complicated Democrats’ efforts to hold the majority, as voters tended to select candidates from one party for both the presidential and down-ballot races.

The Republican victory in the Senate represents a notable shift in the balance of power and will enable the GOP to set the legislative agenda when the 119th Congress convenes in January 2025.

As Republicans prepare for their new majority, they will hold a vote this month to choose the next Senate leader to succeed Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who is the longest-serving party leader in Senate history and currently serves as Senate Minority Leader.

Newly elected Republican senators will participate in the leadership vote via a secret ballot.

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The chosen leader will play a key role in managing the Senate floor, setting the legislative priorities, and overseeing the chamber’s operations, marking a new chapter in GOP leadership as they take on the majority.

With the Senate majority back in Republican hands, the 2024 election results solidify a GOP presence in Congress, poised to influence legislative direction and challenge the Democratic executive branch.

Donald Trump weighed in on Republicans taking the Senate during his victory speech.

The shift marks a significant political outcome, especially with several high-stakes legislative issues expected to emerge in the next congressional session.

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