President-elect Donald Trump has secured Michigan in the 2024 presidential race, adding 15 electoral votes to his tally and nearly completing a sweep of the swing states.

Trump now leads Kamala Harris 49.6% to 48.4%, with 95% of votes counted, according to the Decision Desk HQ.

With only Arizona remaining among the swing states, Trump has claimed victory in nearly every key battleground.

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Prior to Election Day, election analyst Nate Silver suggested that a Michigan win would be crucial for Trump, making his path to victory nearly certain.

This Michigan win mirrors Trump’s success in 2016, when he flipped the state for Republicans for the first time since George H.W. Bush won it in 1988.

Known for its close races, Michigan saw Trump narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton by about 11,000 votes in 2016, while Joe Biden won by around 154,000 votes in 2020.

Throughout the 2024 campaign, both Trump and Harris made significant efforts to appeal to Michigan’s working-class voters, particularly in the state’s auto industry heartland.

Harris held a Labor Day rally in Detroit, urging voters to “thank a union member,” while Trump held events on factory floors to highlight his support for manufacturing jobs.

Both candidates offered distinct positions on issues central to Michigan workers, including electric vehicle mandates and industry taxation.

BREAKING NEWS: Fox News can call the state of Michigan for Donald J. Trump, making him one state closer to sweeping the seven swing states. Arizona and Nevada are still outstanding.

Also, House Speaker Mike Johnson tells me: “We are tracking all outstanding races. I am… pic.twitter.com/Ll0oQElRXW

— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) November 6, 2024

Trump appealed to voters concerned about the decline of Michigan’s auto industry and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, an issue that has resonated deeply with Michigan residents.

He frequently emphasized Detroit’s economic struggles, claiming the city “never came back” from its downturns, while Harris and her supporters highlighted positive developments under Democratic leadership.

The Israel-Hamas conflict also became a significant issue in Michigan, affecting campaign rhetoric more than in any other swing state.

The “Free Palestine” movement presented challenges for the Democratic Party, with over 100,000 Democrats voting “uncommitted” in Michigan’s February primary, expressing dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s handling of the conflict.

Polling indicated an increase in support for third-party candidates, particularly among Muslim and Arab American voters.

In response, the Trump campaign led outreach efforts in Muslim and Middle Eastern communities, with events organized by former ambassador Ric Grenell and Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, aimed at engaging voters dissatisfied with the current administration’s approach to the Middle East.

The Trump campaign’s efforts to reach beyond its traditional base were evident, with significant outreach to typically Democratic voting blocs, including Black voters, Arab Americans, and union members. Meanwhile, Democrats focused on making abortion a central issue in Michigan, despite protections for abortion rights enshrined in the state constitution since 2022.

Democratic candidates ran numerous ads claiming Republicans would support a national abortion ban.

In the end, Michigan voters delivered a win for Trump, signaling a shift in the state’s support and marking a critical achievement for the former president on his path to re-election.

Here’s what the data said prior to the election:

According to U.S. News & World Report’s reporting on Michigan:

Mail Ballots Returned as of Nov. 5: 3,319,560
In-Person Early Votes: N/A*
Total Early Votes: 3,319,560

“The Great Lakes State had been seeing “record-breaking” turnout for its early voting period, and close to half of Michigan’s active registered voters already had cast their ballot as of Nov. 4, according to state officials, including approximately 1.2 million voters who’d cast a ballot at an in-person site. (Note: Election Lab reports mail and in-person early votes together, noting that Michigan does not distinguish between the two in data files.)

Early voting statewide in Michigan started on Oct. 26. A majority of the tally of voters included in the university’s tracker came from those 41 and older. Michigan voters do not have to register by party to vote in a presidential general election.” – U.S. News & World Report

In the final 2024 RealClear Polling Average, Kamala Harris was ahead by 0.5 in Michigan.

Below, you can see how the RealClear Polling average for Michigan was trending in the months leading up to the election.

In 2020’s final results, Joe Biden edged Donald Trump out, 50.6% to 47.8%. In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 47.3% to 47.0%.

Polymarket betting odds in Michigan (as of 2:59 PM EST) had Kamala Harris up over Donald Trump 62% to 39%:

Polymarket 2024 National Election Forecast:

The moment of truth…

Trump • 61.8% chance
Harris • 38.2% chance

Election day. pic.twitter.com/7xzD5rNkvb

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

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