Germany’s top foreign intelligence agency has determined with 80% to 95% certainty that the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a Chinese government lab in Wuhan, according to new reports from German news outlets Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The findings from the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, were reportedly reached years ago but kept secret by the German government.

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The intelligence agency’s covert investigation, dubbed “Project Saaremaa”, targeted Chinese government agencies and scientific institutes, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).

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The BND’s internal assessment, based on both classified Chinese documents and public research, concluded that an accidental lab release was the most likely cause of the pandemic.

“The BND is convinced that the coronavirus likely originated in a Chinese laboratory,” German investigators wrote.

Their “Probability Index” ranked the likelihood of a lab leak between 80% and 95%.

Without classified Chinese data, the agency still rated the lab leak scenario at 50% to 80% certainty, indicating that secret Chinese documents significantly strengthened their conclusions.

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German intelligence agents reportedly obtained unpublished data and internal documents from Chinese researchers, including doctoral theses from 2019 and 2020 that contained information about the effects of coronaviruses on the human brain.

These findings, according to BND analysts, suggested an unusually advanced knowledge of COVID-19 before it was officially identified.

Additionally, BND sources uncovered evidence of lax security measures at the Wuhan lab, unsafe transportation of virus-infected lab animals, and a pattern of careless practices that increased the risk of an accidental release.

According to the report, the BND completed its assessment in 2020, but the German Federal Chancellery—which oversees the intelligence service—chose not to act.

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BND chief Bruno Kahl first briefed State Secretary Johannes Geismann on the intelligence, with later reports delivered to Chancellery Minister Helge Braun and then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.

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Despite these briefings, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Bundestag (Germany’s federal parliament) were never informed.

German news outlets described this as “Berlin’s best-kept secret”, with the intelligence being locked away for five years under “deep red” classified markings.

The revelations align with recent shifts in U.S. intelligence assessments.

The CIA, under new Director John Ratcliffe, reported in January 2025 that “CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting.”

According to German sources, Berlin believes that BND intelligence played a role in the CIA’s eventual acceptance of the lab leak theory.

However, the BND was not allowed to share its findings with U.S. intelligence agencies until December 2024, following President Donald Trump’s election victory and the impending transition to a new German government under Friedrich Merz.

The secrecy surrounding the German intelligence report mirrors similar suppression efforts in the United States.

Former DNI John Ratcliffe, who testified before Congress in April 2023, stated that intelligence overwhelmingly supported a lab leak.

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“A lab leak is the only explanation credibly supported by our intelligence, by science, and by common sense,” Ratcliffe said.

“If our intelligence and evidence supporting a lab leak theory was placed side by side with our intelligence and evidence pointing to a naturally occurring ‘spillover’ theory, the lab leak side of the ledger would be long and overwhelming while the ‘spillover’ side would be nearly empty.”

Despite such conclusions, top U.S. officials—including then-Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines—continued to downplay the theory.

In May 2023, Haines reportedly dismissed the U.S. Energy Department’s assessment, telling German officials “there is nothing to it.”

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Meanwhile, former FBI Director Christopher Wray confirmed in 2023 that the FBI had long believed COVID-19 originated at the Wuhan lab, aligning with the Energy Department’s assessment that rated a lab leak as the most likely scenario, albeit with “low confidence.”

Christopher Wray, Director of the FBI, testifies in front of the House Judiciary Committee in Washington on Wednesday, July 12, 2023.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has consistently rejected claims that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab.

Instead, Chinese officials have promoted a baseless conspiracy theory that the virus originated at a U.S. military base.

However, the latest revelations from German intelligence challenge Beijing’s narrative.

With the BND’s report finally coming to light, pressure is mounting on Western governments to re-examine COVID-19’s origins and hold the Chinese government accountable for its handling of the pandemic.

Following the German media exposé, Berlin has informed the Bundestag and the World Health Organization about the BND’s classified findings.

The revelations raise significant questions about the decisions made by Western governments during the pandemic, particularly why Germany’s leadership chose to suppress intelligence linking COVID-19 to a lab leak for years.

In the early months of the pandemic, U.S. government scientists, including Dr. Anthony Fauci and then-NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins, dismissed the possibility of a lab leak.

Emails later revealed that they worked behind the scenes to discredit the theory.

Evidence suggests that Fauci and his allies “prompted” a key scientific paper that shut down serious discussion of the Wuhan lab as the source of the virus.

With both German and U.S. intelligence agencies now leaning toward a lab leak theory, the debate over China’s role in the pandemic is far from over.

The revelations could fuel calls for greater accountability from Beijing, as well as renewed scrutiny of the Western leaders who ignored or suppressed evidence of the lab origin hypothesis.

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